Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
