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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though analysts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.